Knowing Who

How to Save the World

Google has quietly announced that it has acquired Writely, a tool that simply allows users to use HTML as the standard for all document preparation (without having to learn HTML), and to share, collaborate and publish such documents to whomever they wish. In doing so, they have signaled that they understand the need to simplify desktop management the way they have simplified search, by burying all the complexity of document management and document transmission beneath a very simple meta-application. This is precisely what I have repeatedly called for to increase productivity of knowledge workers, encourage massively more sharing of important information, enable real-time collaboration and, most important, get the bulk of the 80% of the population still on the far side of the digital divide online and onside.

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The next great challenge for Google will be to simply the challenge of finding people (know-who) the way they have already simplified the challenge of finding information (know-what) and finding places (know-where). That means whether you're looking for an expert, a supplier, a business partner, a spouse, the Wisdom of Crowds, or a soul-mate, Google will get you there in one click. I have no doubt they are up to this challenge.

Inkling - The Wisdom of the Crowd Returns

Mashable!

I love all this wisdom of crowds stuff. Communities, networks and markets - they’re all fascinating (far more interesting, in fact, than the non-social web applications that increasingly fall under the Web 2.0 umbrella). Although rarely mentioned, prediction markets like the Yahoo Tech Buzz Game and Smarkets are probably the best examples of the wisdom of crowds in action - and much closer to Surowiecki’s theory than Digg or Reddit. (And let’s not forget about opinion polling sites like Vizu.) So now we’ve got another prediction market to kick the tires on - Inkling is an überslick service that lets you buy stocks in all kinds of upcoming events. From the site:

Inkling is an online marketplace where people buy and sell shares in stocks representing what they think will happen in the future. The stock with the highest price represents what the “crowd” thinks is going to happen. Inkling does not use real money. Traders exchange the “Inkle,” Inkling’s imaginary currency. The Inkling approach will work for all sorts of stuff. Product features, sales forecasts, pricing, fashion, finance, personal use, the list goes on and on. Inkling has been designed to be easy enough for our moms to use, but satisfying for stock market gurus as well.

Techdirt points out that these fake-money prediction markets aren’t as useful as real-money markets - and of course this is true. People just aren’t as motivated to vote (or vote in the right way) when the currency isn’t real.

Meanwhile, real-money markets like Tradesports and InTrade are making megabucks on the back of crowd wisdom. So why don’t we see more Tradesports-style markets? Why can’t I buy stocks in Web 2.0 companies (and we’re not talking about BlogShares or AlexaDex)? The simple answer is legality - IANAL, but it seems that prediction markets would be classed as betting, leading to all kinds of legal headaches.